The inexorable rise of global emissions continued, and COP27 demonstrated the paucity of global governance. CSER is working with governments on approaches to nuclear diplomacy, and to improve our understanding of the likely global climatic consequences from nuclear detonations over many cities. Many practitioners are today aware of the need to double down on new effective instruments that tackle emerging novel complexities. The Doomsday Clock moved in a direction away from Midnight in 1963 soon after the Cuban Missile Crisis. On the other hand, increasing awareness of the nuclear risks could spur action. In particular, arms control is in crisis since the Trump Administration shredded many agreements with Russia, and the last remaining instrument, New START, runs out in three years. This war has also damaged the appetite for cooperation and global diplomatic capacity across all sectors. The dangers of nuclear use have risen to heights last seen 40 years ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its leadership’s explicit warnings around the use of nuclear weapons are the most concerning development of the year. Our researchers cover a variety of hazards, their interactions and the vulnerabilities within our systems, seeking achievable transitions that can positively impact upon this capacity. The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk takes a holistic and pluralist approach to these challenges. The world’s capacity to manage complex existential risk has been weakened in 2022. The risk involves complex interaction between longer term trends that include climate change, disruptive technologies and social instabilities alongside a more immediate deterioration in strategic relationships and limitations to the effectiveness of global governance. The Doomsday Clock has a simple message - that humanity can and must dramatically improve its collective capacity to govern itself and its more dangerous and complex activities if we are to survive. Below we set out our own reasons for this conclusion and some of the ways that we will be working over the next year to try and improve the situation. As researchers at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, we regrettably can only concur with this terrifying assessment of humanity’s existential predicament. This reflects a global situation that is spiralling out of humanity’s control, in relation to the risk of nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and disruptive technology. Today the Doomsday Clock has been moved to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been and a full 25% closer to midnight than it was set at any time during the Cold War.
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